Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 1111.221169 1271.345508 1453.401749 1677.181105 1946.840860 2263.856900 2668.530173
2025-03-09 878.014431 1082.864021 1339.859768 1691.830295 2170.785118 2814.227528 3769.908853
2025-03-16 749.129842 966.180037 1255.244652 1679.059687 2303.689482 3223.436720 4748.357307
2025-03-23 672.476609 899.566619 1217.317196 1710.951558 2491.104866 3739.431836 6036.545893
2025-03-30 590.550692 811.411249 1131.970171 1652.278139 2520.385976 4004.928033 6984.171380
2025-04-06 526.832855 740.328353 1059.960167 1598.731490 2541.523568 4253.378943 7978.352826
2025-04-13 472.691005 676.837263 990.550224 1536.664045 2532.691020 4440.098629 8910.171747
2025-04-20 451.054935 660.310630 991.990989 1592.243392 2744.046885 5102.350202 11188.872255
2025-04-27 425.312410 634.278249 974.272264 1610.382284 2886.320916 5659.946939 13489.762396
2025-05-04 403.634864 612.470375 960.711332 1633.243386 3041.501573 6290.200125 16348.134350
2025-05-11 383.180984 590.628872 944.394925 1647.883820 3181.580630 6927.276103 19640.554038
2025-05-18 372.012496 583.343984 952.735691 1711.662515 3443.648855 7963.359698 25108.745083
2025-05-25 359.275982 572.993812 955.821302 1768.607283 3712.502676 9151.453388 32476.182729
2025-06-01 342.636111 554.403943 941.796296 1788.075752 3897.679194 10185.627563 40488.980561
2025-06-08 323.841139 530.235573 914.398493 1773.812987 3992.556028 10977.902527 48390.256240
2025-06-15 312.074210 517.961801 908.919293 1808.109804 4227.808661 12368.122510 62222.212091
2025-06-22 291.473729 487.596624 864.371365 1745.162550 4174.544616 12683.390949 69421.016848
2025-06-29 273.253485 460.515947 824.240249 1687.766564 4126.515492 13009.773275 77539.434953
2025-07-06 255.704049 433.619933 782.388747 1621.281142 4038.630310 13147.192324 84561.085976
2025-07-13 250.900361 431.004918 790.933514 1680.814106 4357.680253 15216.764830 116607.342939
2025-07-20 242.911849 421.554505 784.055649 1700.251960 4554.235136 16867.330447 151167.211196
2025-07-27 235.852038 413.449665 779.341781 1724.756195 4776.195757 18813.565673 200740.759483
2025-08-03 228.563464 404.386488 771.710605 1740.452388 4973.237133 20792.396642 265637.531920